CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001)

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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50302
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Mar 2025, 1301UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 006

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at low
levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flaring. A total of 12
numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours.
The flaring activity was dominated by a new region, SIDC Sunspot Group 424
(magnetic type beta), which emerged in the south-east quadrant, currently
located at S18E52. It has produced a C9.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3737) peaking
at 23:01 UTC on Mar 01. Two other regions have emerged near the east limb,
namely SIDC Sunspot Group 422 (magnetic type alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group
423 (magnetic type beta). The latter one has exhibited significant growth,
but has not produced any significant flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group
420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active
Region 4006) remain the largest regions on the visible solar disc, but have
been mostly quiet. They are both classified as magnetic type beta. The
remaining regions are either simple and/or have been mostly quiet. The
solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24
hours with 30% chances for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A long filament in the south-east quadrant was
erupting in the UTC afternoon of Mar 01. A possibly related south-east
coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph data
around 18:12 UTC on Mar 01. The CME is estimated to have a projected
velocity below 500 km/s. Current analysis suggests only a small glancing
blow arrival on Mar 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in
the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) were under the waning influence of a previously ongoing high speed
stream arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B,
decreased to nominal levels with a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz
of -3.6 nT. The solar wind speed has decreased from above 700 km/s towards
500 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive
sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected
to return towards background slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours.


Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet
to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Mar 03 and Mar 04. An
increase to active conditions with small chances of reaching minor
geomagnetic storm levels might be expected on Mar 05 with any possible
glancing blow ICME arrival.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has
remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours, while the
greater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the
threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron fluxed are
expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours and over the
next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. It is
expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and increase towards moderate
levels thereafter.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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